1. Kwenzekani Manje?
Kuyisonto lokuqala likaJanuwari 2026. Umhlaba wokuthenga izinsimbi usanda kushintsha ngokuphelele. Singakubiza lokhu ngokuthi "iKhethini Lensimbi Yezinsiza."
Eminyakeni engamashumi amabili edlule, besingathenga izinsimbi ezifana neTungsten noma iCobalt noma kuphi. Leso sikhathi sesiphelile. Manje, sinezimakethe ezimbili ezihlukene. Imakethe eyodwa iseShayina, kanti enye iseNtshonalanga. Zinamanani ahlukene nemithetho ehlukene.
Nakhu okuboniswa ucwaningo kuleli sonto:
●I-Tungsten:Intengo iyanda kakhulu. I-China ilawula cishe u-82% wokunikezwa. Bamane banciphisa inani abazolithengisela umhlaba. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, i-United States yaqala ukukhokhisa intela engu-25% (intela) ku-tungsten yaseShayina ngomhlaka-1 Januwari.
●I-Cobalt:Isimo eCongo (DRC) siyadida kodwa sibucayi. Babeke umkhawulo wokuthi bazothumela malini kwamanye amazwe. Banwebe isikhathi esibekiwe kancane ukuze basize amaloli ukuthi adlule emngceleni, kodwa inani eliphelele elivunyelwe ngo-2026 lisaphansi kakhulu. Amanani ayakhuphuka ngenxa yalokhu.
●Insimbi Esheshayo (i-HSS):Lena yinsimbi esetshenziselwa ukwenza amathuluzi okusika. Ngenxa yokuthi izithako (i-Tungsten ne-Cobalt) ziyabiza, amanani ensimbi ayakhuphuka. Kodwa amafektri eShayina ayaphinda aba matasa, ngakho-ke athenga insimbi eyengeziwe. Lokhu kusekela amanani aphezulu.
2. I-Tungsten: Indaba Yezimakethe Ezimbili
Ngibheke kakhulu imakethe yeTungsten kuleli sonto. Kungashiwo ukuthi iyinsimbi ebaluleke kakhulu yokwenza amathuluzi aqinile.
Uhlangothi LwaseShayina
I-China ikhiphe uhlu lwayo olusha lwezinkampani ezivunyelwe ukuthumela i-Tungsten kwamanye amazwe ngoJanuwari 2. Uhlu lufushane. Izinkampani eziyi-15 kuphela ezingayithengisa kwamanye amazwe.1
Ngihlole amanani eShayina. Ithani le-"Black Tungsten Concentrate" manje libiza ngaphezu kuka-356,000 RMB.2Lokhu kuphakeme kakhulu. Kungani kubiza kangaka? Ngithole ukuthi abahloli bezemvelo bavakashela izimayini esifundazweni saseJiangxi. Baphoqa izimayini ukuthi zivalwe ukuze zilungiswe. Ngakho-ke, mancane amatshe aphuma emhlabathini.
Uhlangothi Lwasentshonalanga
EYurophu naseMelika, abathengi bayesaba. Intengo ye-APT (uhlobo lwe-tungsten) eRotterdam ifinyelele ku-$850 yaya ku-$1,000.3Lokhu kuphakeme kakhulu kunaseShayina.
Kungani umehluko? Kungenxa yentela entsha yase-US. NgoSuku Lonyaka Omusha, uhulumeni wase-US waqala intela engu-25% ku-tungsten yaseShayina.4Izinkampani zaseMelika zizama ukuthenga kwamanye amazwe afana neVietnam noma iBrazil. Kodwa akukho okwanele lapho. Ngakho-ke, kufanele bakhokhe imali eningi.
3. I-Cobalt: Ukuntuleka Kokwenziwa
I-Cobalt ibalulekile ekwenzeni amathuluzi asebenza kahle kakhulu (njengensimbi ye-M35). Imakethe ye-Cobalt iyahlanya njengamanje.
Ukunyakaza Okukhulu Kwe-Congo
Iningi leCobalt emhlabeni livela eDemocratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Uhulumeni lapho ufuna imali eyengeziwe. Ngakho-ke, babeke umkhawulo. Bathe bazothumela ngaphandle amathani angu-96,600 kuphela ngo-2026.5
Nansi inkinga. Umhlaba udinga okungaphezu kwalokho. Izibalo ezimfushane zibonisa ukuthi kudingeka okungenani amathani ayi-100,000.
Ukukhululeka "Okungekho Emthethweni"
Ungase ubone izindaba zokuthi iCongo yelule isikhathi sayo sokugcina kuze kube uMashi 2026. Qaphela lezi zindaba. Bakwenze lokhu ngoba amaloli amaningi kakhulu ayebhajwe emngceleni.6Baqeda nje ukuminyana kwezimoto. Umkhawulo wonyaka wonke ka-2026 awukashintshi.
Ngenxa yalo mkhawulo, intengo yeCobalt ku-London Metal Exchange (LME) ikhuphuke ngaphezu kwama-$53,000 kuleli sonto.7
4. Insimbi Esheshayo: Ubani Okhokha Isikweletu?
Lokhu kuzithinta kanjani izimboni ezenza ama-drill bits kanye nama-milling cutters?
Izindleko Ze-Alloys
Kusukela ohlwini lwamanani abakhiqizi bensimbi abakhulu baseYurophu abanjengo-Erasteel, bakhokhisa imali eyengeziwe ebizwa ngokuthi "i-alloy surcharge." NgoJanuwari 2026, le mali icishe ibe yi-1,919 Euros ngethani.8Yehle kancane kusukela ngoDisemba, kodwa isaphezulu kakhulu ngokomlando.
Uma uthenga insimbi ye-M35 (ene-Cobalt kuyo), uzokhokha okungaphezulu kakhulu kunensimbi ye-M2 ejwayelekile. Igebe phakathi kwalezi zintengo ezimbili liya likhula.
Isidingo Sibuya
Amanani aphezulu, kodwa ingabe abantu bayathenga? Yebo.
Idatha "ye-PMI" kaDisemba iyiphuzu elisitshela ukuthi amafektri amatasa yini. Iphuzu laseShayina lalingu-50.1.10Noma yiliphi iphuzu elingaphezu kwama-50 lisho ukukhula. Lesi yisikhathi sokuqala ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ukuthi kube kuhle. Kusho ukuthi amafektri ayasebenza, futhi adinga amathuluzi.
5. Yini Okufanele Siyenze? (Iseluleko Samasu)
Ngokusekelwe kulo lonke lolu cwaningo, nazi ezinye izeluleko zezinyanga ezimbalwa ezizayo.
1. Ungalindi Amanani Ehle.
Amanani aphezulu awawona okwenyuka kwesikhashana. Abangelwa imithetho kahulumeni (izilinganiso kanye nezindleko). Le mithetho ayizukunyamalala maduze. Uma udinga izinto ze-Q2, zithenge manje.
2. Bukela "Ukusabalala".
Uma ungathenga amathuluzi enziwe emazweni angathinteki yizintela zase-US, ungase wonge imali. Kodwa qaphela. Ukunikezwa kulawo mazwe kuphansi kakhulu.
3. Buyisela Konke Kabusha.
Insimbi eqoshiwe manje isifana negolide. Izingcezu ezindala zokubhoboza ziqukethe i-tungsten ne-cobalt. Uma usebenzisa ifektri, ungazilahli. Zithengise noma uzihwebe. Intengo ye-tungsten eqoshiwe ikhuphuke ngo-160% ngonyaka odlule.11
Kwabangenisi bamathuluzi bamazwe ngamazwe, abathengisi ngobuningi, kanye nabasabalalisi:
Ushintsho lwemakethe ekuqaleni kuka-2026 luletha izinselele ezisebenzayo, hhayi nje amanani aphezulu. Okufanele Ukuqaphele:
1. Ukuzinza Kwezindleko Kubaluleke Kakhulu Kunezintengo Ezingahleliwe
Esimweni samanje, ukuphishekela ukwehla kwentengo yesikhathi esifushane kuthwala ingozi enkulu. Izinguquko zenqubomgomo ezivamile, ukulawulwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, kanye nezilinganiso zezinto zokusetshenziswa kusho ukuthi amanani angakhuphuka ngokuzumayo nangokungalindelekile.
Umlingani ozinzile wokunikezela ngempahla one-logic ecacile yamanani uba yigugu kakhulu kunesilinganiso esiphansi kakhulu.
2. Isikhathi Esihambayo kanye Nemvelaphi Manje Sekuyizinto Ezibalulekile
Izwe okudabuka kulo, amandla okukhiqiza, kanye neziteshi zokuthola izinto ezibonakalayo kuthinta ngqo ukuthembeka kokulethwa.
Ezinye izifunda ezingezona ezentela zingase zinikeze izinzuzo zezindleko zesikhashana, kodwa amandla alinganiselwe kanye nokunikezwa okungazinzile kunganciphisa ngokushesha lezo zinzuzo.
3. Ukuhlela Isitokwe Kudinga Isikhathi Eside
Isu lendabuko elithi “thenga uma amanani ehla” alisebenzi kahle. Abathengi bakhuthazwa ukuthi bahlele ukuthenga okungenani ikota eyodwa kusengaphambili futhi baqinisekise ama-SKU ayisihluthulelo kusenesikhathi, ikakhulukazi amathuluzi okusika asekelwe ku-cobalt kanye ne-tungsten.
Umthwalo Wethu Njengomkhiqizi:
Njengomkhiqizi wamathuluzi kanye nomhlinzeki wesikhathi eside, sikholelwa ukuthi indima yethu akuyona ukukhulisa ukwesaba emakethe, kodwa ukusiza ozakwethu bethu ukuba babhekane nokungaqiniseki ngolwazi olucacile kanye nokuhlela okungokoqobo.
Ezinyangeni ezizayo sizogxila kulokhu okulandelayo:
●Ukugcina amashejuli okukhiqiza azinzile naphezu kokuguquguquka kwezinto zokusetshenziswa
●Ukuthuthukisa ukusetshenziswa kwezinto, okuhlanganisa ukuphinda kusetshenziswe okuphezulu kanye nokulawula isivuno
●Ukuxhumana kusenesikhathi namakhasimende mayelana nokucindezeleka kwezindleko kanye nokushintsha kwesikhathi sokukhokha
●Ukugwema amanani aqagelayo, esikhundleni salokho ukunikeza izingcaphuno ezichazwe kahle, ezisekelwe kudatha
Siyaqonda ukuthi amakhasimende ethu nawo angaphansi kwengcindezi evela ezimakethe zawo. Ukubambisana okusimeme, kulesi simo, kuncike ekwethembeni, ekubonakaleni, kanye nasekuqwashiseni ngezingozi ezihlanganyelwe, hhayi ekuncintisaneni kwamanani kwesikhashana.
6. Isifinyezo: Okujwayelekile Okusha Kwemboni Yamathuluzi
Imakethe isishintshile. Akusekho nje kuphela mayelana nokunikezwa kanye nesidingo, kodwa kuhileleke kakhulu kwezepolitiki kanye nemingcele. Ikhethini lensimbi yezinsiza liye lehla, okwenza konke kubize kakhulu. UJanuwari 2026 uzokhunjulwa njengomzuzu obalulekile emakethe yezimbiwa ebalulekile. Le nyanga ibone ukuphahlazeka kwemibono yokuhweba ngokukhululekile ngokumelene namaqiniso anzima ezombusazwe, okunikeza indawo izwe elisha elichazwa yizithiyo, izabelo, kanye nokuqondisa amasu. Kuwo wonke umuntu obambe iqhaza ochungechungeni lwezimboni, ukuzivumelanisa nalesi simo esisha "sezindleko eziphakeme, ukuguquguquka okuphezulu, kanye nomthethonqubo oqinile" akubalulekile nje kuphela ekusindeni kodwa futhi kuyisihluthulelo sokuthola inzuzo yokuncintisana eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo.
Imakethe yamathuluzi okusika ingena esigabeni lapho ezepolitiki zezwe, imithethonqubo, kanye nokuphepha kwezinsizakusebenza kubaluleke kakhulu njengamandla okukhiqiza.
Kubathengi kanye nabaphakeli, umbuzo obalulekile awusekho
"Ngingayithenga ngentengo ephansi kangakanani?"
kodwa
"Ngingayithola kanjani i-oda elithembekile ezinyangeni ezingu-12-24 ezizayo?"
Labo abaqala ukuzivumelanisa naleli qiniso elisha bazoba sesimweni esingcono lapho ukuguquguquka kuba yinto evamile kunokuba kube yinto engavamile.
Isixwayiso: Lo mbiko uhlanganiswe ngokusekelwe olwazini lwemakethe olutholakala emphakathini, izindaba zemboni, kanye nezingcezu zedatha kusukela ngoJanuwari 4, 2026. Izingozi zemakethe zikhona; ukutshalwa kwezimali kudinga ukuqapha.
Imisebenzi ekhonjiwe
1. I-China iqamba izinkampani ezivunyelwe ukuthumela ngaphandle izinsimbi ezibalulekile ngo-2026-2027 - Investing.com, efinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/china-names-companies-allowed-to-export-critical-metals-in-20262027-93CH-4425149
2. Amanani e-Tungsten Ayaqhubeka Nokwenyuka Njengoba Abakhiqizi Abakhulu Benyusa Amanani Enkontileka Yesikhathi Eside, Okubonisa Ukwanda Okumangalisayo Okungu-150% Kulo nyaka [Ukuphawula kwe-SMM] - I-Shanghai Metal Market, efinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103664822
3. Amanani e-Tungsten aseYurophu Akhuphuka Ngenzuzo YaseShayina, Izembozo Zokukhiqiza Ngaphambi Kweholide Zisongela Ukwanda Okuqhubekayo [Ukuhlaziywa kwe-SMM] - I-Shanghai Metal Market, efinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103669348
4. I-United States Iqedela Isigaba 301 Sokwenyuka Kwentela Kwezimpahla Ezingeniswayo Ezivela E-China, kufinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/united-states-finalizes-section-301-tariff-increases-imports-china
5. I-DRC izothatha indawo yokuvinjelwa kokuthunyelwa kwe-cobalt ngezabelo - Iphrojekthi Eluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka, efinyelelwe ngoDisemba 27, 2025,https://projectblue.com/blue/news-analysis/1319/drc-to-replace-cobalt-export-ban-with-quotas
6. I-DRC yanquma ukwandisa isabelo sokuthumela i-cobalt sika-2025 siye ku-Q1 2026., esifinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.metal.com/en/newscontent/103701184
7. I-Cobalt - Intengo - Ishadi - Idatha Yomlando - Izindaba - Ukuhweba Kwezomnotho, kufinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cobalt
8. Inkokhelo eyengeziwe ye-Alloy | Legierungszuschlag.info, kufinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://legierungszuschlag.info/en/
Intengo Yesitokwe se-9.Tiangong International Co Ltd Namuhla | HK: 0826 Bukhoma - Investing.com, ifinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.investing.com/equities/tiangong-international-co-ltd
10. Ukukhiqiza ama-rebound ngoDisemba, kufinyelelwe ngoJanuwari 4, 2026,https://www.ecns.cn/news/economy/2026-01-02/detail-iheymvap1611554.shtml
11. Amanani e-Tungsten Concentrate Akhuphuka ngo-7% ngosuku olulodwa – Disemba 16, 2025, kufinyelelwe ngoDisemba 27, 2025,https://www.ctia.com.cn/en/news/46639.html
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Jan-05-2026